Key events
Patrick Commins
The Paris-based OECD – a 38-member grouping of rich countries, including Australia – on Monday evening issued a more downbeat assessment of the global economy, laying the blame on Trump’s tariffs.
The OECD’s economists slashed their estimates for Australian real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2026 to 1.8% and well below the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 2.3%.
The same report warned the rise in protectionism would push consumer prices higher and could force central banks to start lifting interest rates to contain any inflationary resurgence – although the inflation outlook for Australia remained largely unchanged and even lower in 2026 as slower growth bites.
Jim Chalmers will warn Australia must focus on resilience over retaliation as the Trump administration overturns the rules that have governed the global economic order for the past four decades.
The treasurer will deliver a major economic address in Brisbane at lunchtime today, and we’ll bring that to you live.
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Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then it’ll be Emily Wind to take the reins.
Our top story this morning is that our latest Essential poll shows more Australians approve of Anthony Albanese as the country’s leader than disapprove of him. That’s the first time he’s been in positive territory since the voice referendum 18 months ago stalled his government’s momentum. On a two-party preferred basis, the major parties are neck-and-neck at 47% each, with 6% undecided. A separate Roy Morgan poll today puts Labor ahead of the Coalition by 54.5% to 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
Jim Chalmers will warn Australians today that the country must focus on resilience over retaliation as the Trump administration overturns the rules that have governed the global economic order for the past four decades. As the OECD downgraded the prospects for global growth this year and next, Chalmers will say that Donald Trump’s tariffs are “self-defeating and self-sabotaging”, but Australia will not “race to the bottom” in its reaction.
There’s also a report this morning that will shock many Australians because it shows that swimming standards are falling. Research by Royal Life Saving Australia says nearly half of all year 6 students can’t perform the basic benchmarks of swimming 50m and treading water for two minutes – and they’re not improving in high school.